The Logo
Charles Handy describes how the Sigmoid Curve can be used as a concept for change management.
The Sigmoid Curve sums up the story of life itself. We start slowly, experimentally and falteringly, we wax and then we wane. It is also the story of a product's life-cycle and of many an organisation’s rise and fall.
Luckily, there is life beyond the curve. The secret of constant growth in any organisation is to start a new Sigmoid Curve before the first one peters out. The right place to start that second curve is at point A.
At this point there is the time, as well as the resources and the energy, to get the new curve through its initial explorations and flounderings before the first curve begins to dip downwards.
That would seem obvious, were it not for the fact that at point A all the messages coming through to the individual or the institution are that everything is going fine, that it would be folly to change when the current recipes are working so well.
All that we know of change, be it personal change or change in organisations, tells us that the real energy for change only comes when you are looking disaster in the face, at point B on the first curve. At this point, however, it is going to require a mighty effort to drag oneself up to where, by now, one should be on the second curve.
Wise are they who start the second curve at point A, because that is the way to build a new future while maintaining the present. Even then, however, the problems do not end. The second curve, be it a new product, a new way of operating, a new strategy or a new culture, is going to be noticeably different from the old. It has to be.
The area between the curves is a time of great confusion. Two sets of ideas are competing for the future. When the first curve begins to die it requires great foresight to foster others and initiate major change. Those who can do it, however, will ensure the renewal and the continued growth of their organisation.